If I Hear One More Stupid Custom Ring...

I want a law against unattended cell phones in the work place. If you get up from your desk, take your phone with you. If you leave it at your desk when you are not there, set it to "vibrate." Any candidate whose platform includes a federal law enforcing such will get my whole-hearted endorsement.

Handshakegate '08

With Edwards out, tonight's Democratic debate in California will be a completely different beast. No third or fourth candidate to act as a buffer. Just two candidates. Two candidates who have shown few signs of liking each other lately.

After Handshakegate '08 at the SOTU I predict either Clinton or Obama makes a great gesture at the beginning of the debate to reach out and shake hands with the other. It will be one of those moments that in debate prep seemed like an address-the-elephant-in-the-room gesture but will end up looking like a lame excuse for comedy that politicians can't seem to save themselves from. Sorry I dangled that "from" back there.

It's at 8 on CNN.

Crist's Budget

Gov. Crist sans McCain released his proposed budget today. It's $70-billion and seeks additional spending on some insurance programs despite the fact that House estimates show a projected shortfall in tax revenue. Gov will pay for the new money with the state's reserves and the casino deal with the Seminole Indians.

A quick glance of the Florida House Budget Chair's reaction is that he's not crazy about the governor's plan and it faces a fight.

Mopping Up

Today is a different day. It is essentially a two (wo)man race in both parties now. Edwards gone. Giuliani gone. Huckabee did not do well yesterday and is reported to be running on fumes financially. Tonight's Republican debate in Simi Valley will be McCain, Romney, Paul and Huckabee unless Paul or Huckabee bows out before it starts.

With McCain's victory, the headline from last night is that there is finally a front runner in this campaign.

Statewide voter turnout in Florida yesterday was 37.7%. A half dozen or so counties reported well above 50%.

Exit Polls

Early exit polls in Florida show 4 of 10 moderates voted for McCain today. And 4 in 10 conservatives voted for Romney.

It also shows about 6 of 10 people who oppose abortion rights voted for either Romney or Huckabee. About the same who support abortion rights voted for McCain and Giuliani.

Born-again Christians split their votes pretty evenly among Huckabee, Romney and McCain.

Sitting on the anchor desk

I am sitting on the anchor desk in the studio right now. TGFL (Thank God for Laptops) We are cutting into programming whenever there is movement. Clinton is scheduled to address her troops in Davie, FL sometime this hour.

FCN.com is streaming candidate speeches in their entirety tonight. We will air parts of the speeches live when we are on the air but the speeches will continue on our website.

Clinton Wins

Hillary Clinton was just declared winner of Democratic primary in Florida. What she wins? Who knows. At the very least bragging rights. Perhaps momentum heading into next Tuesday's 1000-plus delegate free-for-all. And maybe even Florida's delegates at August's convention if something is worked out by then.

McCain squeaking ahead of Romney. That is still fluid and we are early in the night.

Margaret Truman Dies

Harry Truman's only child died today. Margaret Truman was 83. It's worth your time to look up her biography. What a life she had.

Florida Primary Day

Anecdotal evidence seems to show strong voter turnout in Florida pretty much statewide.

At my polling place an older woman as she was getting in her car was yelling about how we were going to wreck fire protection and schools here. I wonder how she voted on Amendment 1?

Weather is perfect. A neighbor was sitting in a cheap lawn chair in his driveway, tie on, no suit jacket, working on his laptop. He has the right idea today.

Nope

I just called in to the conference call. It has been postponed until further notice.

Hillary Conference Call to Discuss FL Delegates

Hillary Clinton supporters are holding a conference call at 3 about seating Florida and Michigan delegates at the convention.

Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH)

Rep. Alcee Hastings (FL)

Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (OH)

Are hosting the call.

I'll let you know what they say.

Kennedy Clinton SOTU

State of the Union is about to begin. Sen. Clinton is working the crowd making her way to her seat. Sen. Obama has already taken his seat. Next to Sen. Edward Kennedy. Kennedy, as you know, endorsed Obama today.

Hillary Clinton was endorsed by a Kennedy. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. endorsed her late last year. Clinton occupies his father's former New York Senate seat. But you have to assume that tonight the seat she really wanted was the one Obama is in, next to Robert's uncle.

They Really Never Came

There is (for me) a strange feeling heading into tomorrow's Florida primary. We've plowed through Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina and still the question remains: Will Florida's Democratic voters matter tomorrow?

Against any bet I would have made, the Democratic presidential candidates sure enough stuck to their pledge and did not campaign here. And just between you and me, every single day since they made their no-campaign promise, I have been expecting the three or at least two leading candidates to wiggle through a loophole and show up in Florida. They didn't. I was wrong.

So, will the votes count? Democratic officials keep urging us not to report the fact that Florida will get no delegates in Denver. But nothing is changing. The DNC never blinked. The party was apparently deadly serious this time and so were the candidates. Florida broke the rules. Florida is being punished. The end.

Voter turnout in early and absentee ballots is strong in both parties. The figures I got from the Florida Democratic Party (not a preference.It is just the party that pulled these figures together today) show 1,057,144 total have voted. That breaks down with D-437,038 and R-503,461.

Pretty impressive. But let's not forget Floridians are voting on Amendment 1 tomorrow, too.

The Last SOTU

I have an old, beat up, red, white and blue pocket-sized U.S. Constitution (And Fascinating Facts about It) that I've kept in my work bag for 10 years or more. The internet has reduced it to little more than bag clutter on most days. But every year around this time I dig it out to remind myself why the president is speaking to the country. It's highlighted in yellow on dog-eared page 40 and is spiced up with baffling capitalization.

Article II Section III
"He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient..."

Tonight at 9pm President George Walker Bush shall give Congress Information of the State of the Union for the last time.

A Nice Get for Sen. Clinton

Senator Clinton gets the endorsement of Sen. Bill Nelson. This is a good get for several reasons. One being that Nelson led the charge on legal action against the Dem Party for tying Florida's hands in the primaries and Clinton continues to hold the party line and not campaign here.

The endorsement also comes on the same day Clinton reached out to Florida voters as detailed in the post below.

The Camera Never Blinks

Thanks to those of you who emailed and posted on the Talk Back section on Ron Paul.

It is an interesting situation. I don't think I'll ever truly understand why one candidate is immediately marginalized and another not. Congressman Paul has really never been taken seriously by the mainstream press yet he has consistently finished ahead of candidates like Rudolph W. Giuliani in primaries. Still Giuliani is painted as a possible serious contender. Go figure?

Paul obviously has a message that many people connect with. And more than other Republican candidates seems to have the attention of college age Republicans.

I thought the debate was mostly very gentlemanly and the candidates on-message. Did anyone break out of the pack last night? Did anyone change any Florida minds?

I think one of the most difficult parts of participating in a high-profile debate would be controlling your expressions when you are not speaking or being directly spoken to. In other words, when you think the camera isn't paying attention to you. A couple of times last night, Gov. Romney looked like he was going to throw up and Mayor Giuliani was squinting and blinking like he'd just emerged from a lifetime of living in the tunnels of New York.

It's nothing more than the facial expressions they make when listening intently. I know when I'm really trying to listen to something I look like a Sioux Indian scanning the distance for approaching enemy cowboys.

I'd love to hear from you about your expectations of FCN coverage on Primary Night.

-h^tavetu

Clinton and Florida's Delegates

While she will keep to her no-stumping-in-Florida promise, Sen. Clinton today released the following statement saying she will try to get Florida's delegates (and Michigan's) seated at the convention regardless of party rules. Here you go:

“I hear all the time from people in Florida and Michigan that they want their voices heard in selecting the Democratic nominee.

“I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. I know not all of my delegates will do so and I fully respect that decision. But I hope to be President of all 50 states and U.S. territories, and that we have all 50 states represented and counted at the Democratic convention.

“I hope my fellow potential nominees will join me in this.

“I will of course be following the no-campaigning pledge that I signed, and expect others will as well.”

Kucinich out

BC-KucinichWithdraws 01-24 0089
BC-Kucinich Withdraws,80
Kucinich quits presidential race
CLEVELAND (AP) -- Democratic presidential candidate Dennis
Kucinich is abandoning his second bid for the White House.
In an interview with the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the congressman
said he was quitting the race and would made a formal announcement
Friday.
"I want to continue to serve in Congress," he told the
newspaper.
Kucinich said he will not endorse another Democrat in the
primary.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
APTV-01-24-08 1621EST

A Really Big Show

NBC 12 airs the GOP debate from Florida Atlantic Univ tonight at 9. It's 90 minutes. Immediately following, Donna and I will host a half hour special on the debate. We'll be joined by Dr. Matt Corrigan, chairman of UNF PoliSci Dept.

We'll take apart the debate itself then get into the Dem candidates' funky relationship with Florida, Amendment 1 and anything else that comes up.

I'm looking forward to it. I know Donna is too. And history shows when that's the case, it's going to be fun. I hope you watch.


*******
Mason-Dixon poll conducted Jan 21-23 shows Romney leading McCain in Florida but within the margin of error and Clinton burying everyone on the Dem side.

A Frustrating Conversation with the DNC Press Office

Me: Hi. My name is Shannon Ogden. I'm calling from WTLV-TV in Jacksonville, FL. Some lawmakers from down here today sent letters requesting the Democratic presidential candidates be released from their no-campaigning-in-Florida pledge. Do you know if there is any movement on that front?

DNC Guy: That's not with us. That's the states.

Me: Right. I know. But do you know of anything that seems to be shifting in that area?

DNC Guy: That's not us. That's the states.

Me: I know. Ok. I had also heard a rumor that Howard Dean might intercede and allow the candidates to come to Florida this weekend.

DNC Guy: (kind of shocked) What? No. I've heard nothing about that. No. That has nothing to do with us.

Me: Well, come on. It all started with your rules. It has something to do with you.

DNC Guy: Well, yes, but...the pledge. It has nothing to do with us.

Me: Listen, I'm not trying to get into an argument over semantics. I'm just trying to figure out if the candidates are coming to Florida.

DNC Guy: (silence)

Me: So, are the candidates coming to Florida? Before the primary on the 29th?

DNC Guy: I don't know their schedules. I don't work for their campaigns.

Me: I know that. But have you heard anything like that?

DNC Guy: No.

Me: Thank you. Good bye.

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar...

Oscar nominations were announced this morning. We will have plenty of time to fine tune our picks before the Feb. 24th ceremony. But tonight I want to get out in front on one category.

I want to go on record as saying that if Il Supplente does not win for Live Action Short Film over fan favorites Le Mozart des Pickpockets and Tanghi Argentini, which I found so penuriously devoid of direction as to make the actors nearly existentially obstreperous, I may lose faith in human nature altogether.

Fred 08

It was one of my favorite bumper stickers of this campaign. A navy blue oval outlined in white that just said "Fred 08." I grabbed a couple of them the last time I was at GOP HQ. Now of course I'm banking on them becoming coveted collector's items. Hello ebay.

Fred Thompson's campaign just never seem to take off. I met him on the day or day after he launched his campaign. He was certainly pleasant but didn't seem terribly excited. His mood seemed to me more of someone who had just successfully reorganized his tools in the garage than someone who was launching a presidential bid. Maybe that was him being excited. Who knows?

No one will ever be able to argue that he didn't look like a president. Or a district attorney. Or a sub commander for that matter. Anyway, more elbow room for the other candidates at the debate in Boca Thursday. Such is politics.

Matt Lauer's favorite band is Earth, Wind and Fire

I interviewed John McCain this afternoon at a private air terminal on the grounds of JIA. Most journalists who cover him say he's a nice guy. And he is. He seems to have trimmed down since I saw him last. I can't imagine the toll such a campaign takes on your body. But he looked good. He certainly doesn't look 71.

His answers did seem a bit more cautious than in previous interviews. But who can blame him? He just won the South Carolina primary and certainly has more to lose than gain from joking around with a journalist.

His wife Cindy was with him. She sat off-camera to his left during the interview tapping away on her Blackberry. I had never met her before. She was too busy for me to get an accurate impression. He seems to think she'd make a good First Lady.

For years and years I have asked high-profile people what books they are reading and what music is in heavy rotation on their iPod/CD player. Because I read so much and listen to so much music their answers help me feel like I get a better bead them.

John McCain most recently ("for fun" not for work) read For Whom the Bell Tolls. He initially told me it was The Great Gatsby but then changed his final answer to For Whom the Bell Tolls. I'm assuming he has read them both recently and it wasn't that he gets the two confused. But The Great Gatsby for fun? For Whom the Bell Tolls, sure. Robert Jordan is one of the coolest characters ever. And it's just a cool book. Blowing up stuff. Sneaking around fighting the man. Falling in love with a beautiful fellow freedom fighter. But The Great Gatsby?

Music in heavy rotation on the senator's iPod? "Anything before 1967," he said. That's too vague for me but I let it slide. And just between you and me it's also a tad disappointing. Sgt. Pepper's came out in '67. Joni Mitchell's Blue is still four years away and The Clash don't come around for another 10 years.

I remember Matt Lauer told me years ago that Earth, Wind and Fire's Greatest Hits never left his car CD player. I'm not sure why I remember that.

The whole interview is or will be posted. McCain's interview. Not Matt Lauer's.

Here they come!

Florida is about to get a lot more crowded for Rudolph W. Giuliani. He has more or less had the place to himself for the last couple of months but starting this weekend the rest of the field starts to jog back in.

At this point in the race all the campaigns seem to have a frenetic "Should we go here? Or should we go here? And if here, then when? And when will be come back to here?" air about them. In the last two days I've been told Huckabee, Thompson, McCain and Romney will for sure be in Jacksonville in the next five days. Or they won't be in Jacksonville in the next five days. But definitely within the next six days. Unless that changes.

The bottom line I guess is that as soon as the South Carolina GOP primary is over Saturday, look for the Republicans to be tramping down the Florida sand in numbers and frequency of visits like we have not yet seen.

Leroy Neiman, Wii and the Duval GOP

I had an interesting interview with Duval Co. GOP chairman John Falconetti today. Very nice guy. Excited about his job, which is always nice to see.
We run down his vision for the party, the breaking of Republican ranks over Amendment 1, RNC punishment of Florida and his predictions for the races. It's a good interview. It will be posted unedited soon. Please check it out.

But I have to admit that it is occasionally distracting when you talk to him because you can't help think about the fact that he is married to someone Leroy Neiman has painted. (Falconetti is married to Olympic gold medal gymnast Shannon Miller.) Growing up, only the greatest most Wide World of Sportiest athletes were painted by Neiman and his ridiculously awesome mustache - Ali, Johnny Bench, the US Lake Placid Hockey Team, Frazier-Foreman...etc.

Driving away from the interview I was also saddened for a moment realizing that I have pretty much missed my shot at doing anything for which I will be painted by Leroy Neiman. Unless you think he's interested in capturing an exceptional Wii bowler.

Grace Potter & the Nocturnals

The new Duval Co GOP chairman John Falconetti and I will finally get a chance to do that interview tomorrow. It has been postponed two or three times now. The last time, just as I arrived at his office the T2 Labs on the Northside exploded and I had to rush back to the newsroom.

Please email me any specific questions you'd like me to ask him. As always, the entire interview will be posted on fcn.com.

It's been a busy but largely uneventful day. Dems are still in NV. Republicans are still in SC. Rudy is still in Florida. And I still haven't eaten lunch or dinner.

Want a break from stump speeches, polling results, promises of change and vilification of "Washington Insiders"? Check out Grace Potter and the Nocturnals. An extraordinary soul/rock/bluesy band from Burlington, VT. Their new CD is worth your time. It's one of my favorite albums from last year.

Romney Wins

We are three for three (sort of. Apparently it was decided somewhere that everyone would ignore Wyoming's Jan. 5 primary which Romney won). Three GOP primaries, three different winners. The promise of a brokered convention lingers.

Clinton won Michigan but it was a non-event for Dems.

MSNBC has tonight's Nevada Dem debate. It's a very different tone and look. It is just the three top contenders - Obama, Clinton and Edwards - sitting around a dark round table with Brian Williams and Tim Russert. It has much more of a cordial chat feel than any previous debate.

Obama and Clinton promised to cool the rancor between their campaigns blaming over-eagers supporters for some of the nastiness that has recently surfaced.

The Big G

I'm staring at Rudy Giuliani's campaign bus currently parked outside the TV station. FL AG Bill McCullum is also milling about. He is Giuliani's state chairman.

Rudy's proximity to the currently nameless professional football stadium across the parking lot from his bus gave me an idea.

His campaign appears in desperate shape and even with all the time and money spent in Florida polls show him still losing ground to John McCain. Here's the idea: Jacksonville stadium has no name or sponsor and Giuliani is trying to do something to win the hearts of Florida voters... why doesn't his campaign buy the naming rights to the stadium? What Jags fan wouldn't love the man whose name provides a home to his/her beloved team?

Rudolph W. Giuliani Stadium... home of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

What if?

While cold voters do their duty in Michigan (high in Detroit 30, windchill 19), Jacksonville is harboring Rudy Giuliani for the night after events in Jax and in Yulee. America's Mayor's Florida Or Bust strategy got me thinking. What if? What if Giuliani wins Florida? What if Romney wins his original home state of Michigan today? After Huckabee's victory in Iowa and McCain's in New Hampshire, what if this trend continues and there is no clear frontrunner who the party faithful fall in behind? What if there is a contested convention?

I know this has been blog fodder for months now but the beginnings at least are really happening.

The last brokered convention was 1952. Search the '52 Democratic convention to learn details of the multiple votes it took to nominate Gov. Adlai Stevenson. Also say "blog fodder" out loud. Kind of satisfying. It sounds like old-timey hillbilly swearing.

Led Zeppelin

While Romney and McCain slug it out in Michigan, Rudy Giuliani is spending tomorrow's Michigan primary day in Florida which will include a stop in Jax.
As you've heard, Giuliani is putting all his early eggs in the Florida basket so he's not going to be happy with today's Florida poll numbers. From Quinnipiac:

REPUBLICANS
John McCain, 22 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 20 percent
Mike Huckabee, 19 percent
Mitt Romney, 19 percent
Fred Thompson, 7 percent

So he's just two points back of McCain after McCain's victory in NH. Big deal? Well, McCain is up seven points since Q's Dec. 20th poll and Giuliani is down eight.

Dems are camped out in Nevada, their next real contest which is Sat. What about the primary in Michigan? Michigan was slapped around by the national parties just like Florida. Not only did the Dems pledge not to campaign there, either, but all except Hillary, Kucinich and Gravel requested their names be removed from the ballot.

I'm no campaign strategist but is anyone else Dazed and Confused (I read Led Zeppelin's bio over the weekend) about candidates snubbing two states which have a collective 44 electoral votes to deliver in November? This is not new blogging territory I know but with Michigan's primary upon us and Florida's approaching I'm hit by the realization of what is and is not going on in these states.

Also, did you know the name Led Zeppelin came from a comment The Who's John Entwistle made about a band Jimmy Page was putting together. He said something like that it would go over like a lead zeppelin. Page remembered that when it came time to put the real band together. He also changed the spelling from "lead" to "led" so the yanks wouldn't pronounce it leed zeppelin.

Dribs and drabs

Juggling too many balls at once today so just a couple of quick notes. AP reports about a dozen senior staffers for Giuliani are forgoing their paychecks this month. A sign of possible money trouble?

Regarding last night's GOP debate in SC, the consensus seems to be it had little overall effect on campaign battle.

This also from Associated Press today. A poll shows one in five respondents considers Mike Huckabee attractive.

Florida is Important

I had an interesting interview this afternoon with UNF poli sci professor Henry Thomas. He makes the argument that it really won't matter much at all if Florida's delegates are seated at the summer's presidential nominating conventions. Thomas says that will be overshadowed by Florida primary voters giving invaluable propulsion to two lucky people into Feb. 5's Super Tuesday and then right into the general election.

It's a pretty thorough interview in which we hit Kerry's endorsement of Obama, a possible Bloomberg candidacy, high voter turnout in Florida and his predictions both for Florida's winners and the two who emerge as their parties nominees. (I'll give you a hint to his answer to that one. It rhymes with Millary and BucCain.)

I'll post the entire unedited interview tomorrow afternoon.

Sign sign everywhere a sign... except here

On my run this morning I noticed or rather didn't notice something: political signs. I saw two. We are only two weeks or so away from the Florida primary and I saw two, count 'em two, campaign signs in five miles. And trust me, I was going so slowly this morning that I didn't miss anything. There were two Ron Paul signs and those were directly across the street from each other. Maybe I am just running in a particularly non political part of town but I don't think that's the case.

Something did occur to me, though. Realtors should run for office more. A successful real estate agent has his or here name on front yard signs all over the area. A couple driving around house-hunting sees the sign and goes, "Oh. Mr. Realtor is running for mayor. I think I'll vote for him. And he has a cute little three bed, two and a half bath split level ranch."

Richardson Out

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) is dropping out of the White House race.

After Dodd and Biden dropped out Donna and I were discussing how politically experienced, serious and seemingly-capable candidates sometimes just never grab the attention for whatever reason. Such an inexact science, this politics thing. Richardson has always struck me as a strong candidate. I've met him a few times. He's sharp and charismatic - the kind of pol you could easily imagine being in the mix of a presidential campaign deep into the primaries.

Question from viewer

A viewer from Ortega asks why the DNC and RNC are punishing Florida for moving its primary to Jan. 29th and why Florida won't change back to a date that doesn't so irritate the national parties.

Here's the Cliffs Notes answer. Florida traditionally has held its primary in March well after New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina primaries and caucuses. But Florida lawmakers decided the state is important enough to warrant a higher profile primary so they voted to move it to Jan. 29th. Well, here's the problem. Both national parties want IA,NH,SC to preserve their first-in-the-nation votes. Why? The only answer I'm ever given is simply "tradition." And the parties have rules that prohibit most states from holding primaries before Feb. 5. Since Jan. 29th does happen to come before Feb. 5 the parties punished Florida.

The Dems stripped FL of all its delegates to the summer nominating convention. The GOPs took half the delegates away. What's more, all the major Democratic candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida until after votes in those early states.

Florida lawmakers and party officials refused to be bullied by the national parties and stood their ground. That's where we are today.

Since it was a Republican legislature and Republican governor that changed the date to Jan. 29th I figured the state Democratic party had a good argument that it had nothing to do with the change and therefore shouldn't be punished. But the DNC said "rules are rules" and that was that.

You say to yourself, "This is petty inside baseball stuff that really doesn't matter to our state or country so why should there be a chance my vote won't count because of it." You wouldn't be the first to say it.

A brand new day

On days like this I'm glad I don't make my living as a pollster or political prognosticator. We all awoke this morning to their collective "oops." Hillary won. McCain beat Romney is his own back yard and the overall 2008 campaign has a completely different feel than it did this time yesterday.

I just spoke with Mike Huckabee's press secretary and she seemed as upbeat as her boss did last night when addressing supporters in NH. And why shouldn't they feel upbeat? A couple of months ago the Huckabee campaign was largely treated as little more than a debate placeholder and now his crowds are growing, riding the wave of his Iowa victory. He finished third in NH, by the way and is scheduled to return to Florida Saturday.

Fred Thompson was trounced in NH yesterday finishing a distant sixth. Ron Paul beat him by 16,000 votes or so. But the former senator from TN never seemed to try to be competitive there. I just got off the phone with one of Thompson's advisers who told me the campaign has no plans to change strategy. The strategy is and has been to hold on until South Carolina and start to really shine there.

Clinton beating Obama tonight could signal a very long primary season.

That's it for tonight. Off to the set for this evening's newscast. Hope to see you there.

No one thought, based on yesterday's polling and her finish in Iowa, that Senator Clinton would win NH. Perhaps more unusual... who would have thought a month ago that Clinton winning in NH would be viewed as an unlikely-come-from-behind-underdog win?

Hillary Clinton wins NH primary in a shocking upset. Shocking upset based on yesterday's polling.

Entering the hotel ballroom to chants of "Mac is Back!" a jubilant (or as jubilant as he ever acts) John McCain told the crowd he is too old to be a comeback "kid" - but tonight was indeed a comeback.


John Edwards has been projected to finish third behind Clinton and Obama, though in what order we still don't know.

As has happened so many times in the past, we are on to SC, Nevada, Michigan and Florida with a race that looks much different than polls had us convinced it would just a few days ago.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is addressing his troops in NH. It looks like the winner of the Iowa caucus will finish third tonight. The day after Iowa his campaign began lowering expectations for NH saying they would be pleased with a fourth or fifth place finish. He is calling tonight's finish a very good thing.
He is also pleased it comes on Elvis's birthday. And my Aunt Holly's. Huckabee didn't mention her. That was me. Happy Birthday Holly.

While we wait...

Remember yesterday I said by tomorrow there would be T-shirts available online that say, ""Iron My Shirt"? Sure enough. There they are. I won't add the link but you can get them.
And it seems that whole Clinton "Iron My Shirt" protest scene was staged by a Boston radio station.

By the way, Sen. Clinton is increasing her lead over Obama but the race has not been called and there is still a lot of New Hampshire still to count.

Impressive showing for AZ Sen. John McCain tonight. It appears he will finish at the top of the heap in NH. Romney and Huckabee look to finish second and third respectively.
Not long ago, McCain's cash-strapped campaign was all but written off.

At the moment, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama are very very close with Clinton slightly ahead.

John McCain just won NH.

He won New Hampshire?

While waiting for results of the Biggest Little Primary in the U.S. I am thinking about this cool brick walkway around a court house in Concord, NH. At least I think it's in Concord. The last time I was there it was still being put together. But each brick is inscribed with the winner of the NH Primary in a given year and it's laid out chronologically. For those interested in such things (nerds, I think we are called) it's a fascinating walk. And the most fascinating part for me is realizing just who did and did not win New Hampshire. For all the attention it gets, these independent-minded Live Free or Die-ers don't always pick the ultimate winner.
Here's a brief history of those who have won the New Hampshire primary.

2004
(D) MA Sen. John Kerry (R) Pres. George Bush

2000
(D) VP Al Gore (R) AZ Sen. John McCain

1996
(D) Pres. Bill Clinton (R) Pat Buchanan

1992
(D) Frmr MA Sen. Paul Tsongas (R) Pres. George Bush

1988
(D) MA Gov. Michael Dukakis (R) VP George Bush

1984
(D) CO Sen. Gary Hart (R) Pres. Ronald Reagan

1980
(D) Pres. Jimmy Carter (R) Frmr CA Gov. Ronald Reagan

1976
(D) GA Gov. Jimmy Carter (R) Pres. Gerald Ford

1972
(D) ME Sen. Edmund Muskie (R) Pres. Richard Nixon

1968
(D) Pres. Lyndon Johnson (R) Frmr VP Richard Nixon

1964
(D) Pres. Lyndon Johnson (R) US Ambassador to South Vietnam Henry Cabot Lodge

1960
(D) MA Sen. John F. Kennedy (R) VP Richard Nixon

1956
(D) TN Sen. Estes Kefauver (R) Pres. Dwight D. Eisenhower

1952
(D) TN Sen. Estes Kefauver (R) Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower


I hope your walk down memory lane was as enjoyable as my walk around that court house in Concord. Or maybe Nashua. Truth be told all those very cold, snowy NH towns kind of look a like sometimes.

New Hampshire Eve

Are you one of those families that opens gifts on New Hampshire Primary Eve or do you wait until the actual Primary Day? Get back to me.

Polls indicate Obama and McCain will do well in the Granite State tomorrow and if that is the case Florida's Jan. 29th primary takes on a new and different importance. Sen. Clinton has spent most of primary season leading in most major polls only to come in behind Sen. Obama in Iowa and perhaps will now again in New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani more or less chose not to compete in Iowa and NH instead focusing largely on Florida. In fact, if I'm not mistaken he spent caucus day in South Florida somewhere.

Therefore, Florida as the first big big state with a primary after IA/NH/SC, becomes a must-win for both Clinton and Giuliani. Clinton is among the candidates who pledged to avoid campaigning in FL until after the primaries in IA/NH/SC/NV. So we haven't seen a lot of her. But the moment voting wraps up in South Carolina on Jan. 26, according to a Dem analyst I spoke with today, expect Clinton and the rest of the field, too, to return to the state immediately.

So Florida could be vital for the two candidates from New York. How will they approach Florida voters? There are an awful lot of NY transplants in the south part of the state, of course. It's in this part of the state that I think Clinton's and Giuliani's tone and tempo will be especially interesting to watch. And to answer your question, yes, even though they are both from New York and I am a Red Sox fan, I can and will continue my unbiased journalistic standards.

I am timing just how quickly "Iron my shirt" T-shirts will be available online. If I don't see an ad for one by tomorrow night I'll be very surprised.
Here's the AP story.

SALEM, N.H. (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign stop was
interrupted Monday when two men stood in the crowd and began
screaming, "Iron my shirt!" during one of her final appearances
before the New Hampshire primary.
Clinton, a former first lady running to become the nation's
first female president, laughed at the seemingly sexist protest
that suggested a woman's place is doing the laundry and not running
the country.
"Ah, the remnants of sexism -- alive and well," Clinton said to
applause in a school auditorium.
The two men were removed from the hall after raising a pair of
signs that said, "Iron my shirt!" They also shouted the same
slogan.
"Can we turn the lights on? It's awfully dark," Clinton said,
cueing the lights to come and police to come forward to take the
men away.
The overflow crowd burst into applause and some began shouting,
"Iron my shirt" as the two were taken from the hall.
"As I think has been abundantly demonstrated, I am also running
to break through the highest and hardest glass ceiling," she said.
Clinton later joked about the incident as she invited questions.
"If there's anyone left in the auditorium who wants to learn
how to iron a shirt, I'll talk about that," she said with a smile.
Clinton placed a disappointing second place in Iowa's caucuses
last week and faces a tough challenge in Tuesday's primary from
Barack Obama, who leads her with just one day remaining.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
APTV-01-07-08 1957EST